Overview

This document summarizes the total addressable markets within each state Solstice operates or plans to explore.

Each state defines eligible population for solar farms through unique programmatic details, listed in detail on the Policy Matrix on Coda. This work looks to define how many people are eligible for each state program via income, geographic, or other unique definitions. Many programs have LMI carveouts; this document looks to define how many people that equates to. When available and applicable, utiliy zones are overlaid with these populations to estimate the potential population Solstice would be competing to sign up.

Utility coverage is provided by either the HIFLD national level electric retail service territories or, preferably, state sources that are more granular. Note HIFLD often provides overlapping areas (ex: a municipal boundary and an utility provider) so data should primarily be sourced from state sources or be validated from HIFLD.

Parcel Coverage

Using parcel data, we can tag individual plots considered eligible by various state programs. When data is available, further analyses can provide breakdowns between residential and commercial buildings, allowing marketing to zero in on potential sites for a variety of applications such as corporation identification. Note, this process is only available in states where sufficient and open sourced parcel data is made available. Examples include Illinois.

Solar Saturation

We use the Groundswell’s LIFT to analyze existing CS market sizes and compare these to total capacity in the current state to arrive at existing capacity. State specific resources may supplement LIFT.

Total Eligible Population Comparison

IRA Eligible Population by State

This analysis provides an initial state level estimate of the population eligible for the IRA bonus tax credit as described on the Solstice website. As a reminder, eligible populations must reside in a Persistent Poverty County or in a Climate & Economic Justice Screening Tool: census tracts designated as disadvantaged based on 90th percentile energy burden or PM2.5 exposure + 65th percentile low-income.

In addition to the IRA bonus tax credit, it is useful to consider the New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC) program for a comprehensive understanding of economic incentives in low-income and distressed communities. The NMTC program, managed by the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund, targets investment in communities that meet specific low-income criteria, primarily based on poverty rates or median family income. Unlike the IRA, which focuses on specific environmental and economic factors such as energy burden or PM2.5 exposure, the NMTC program centers more broadly on economic revitalization. Eligibility under the NMTC program is determined by census tracts where the poverty rate is at least 20% or where median family income does not exceed 80% of the area median income (AMI). This approach ensures that investments are directed towards areas in need of economic growth and infrastructure development, complementing the objectives of the IRA. Understanding the overlap and distinct features of both the IRA and NMTC can provide a more holistic view of the socio-economic landscape and opportunities for investment in underserved communities.

The below table shows the following:

• Population - Total 2022 ACS 5 Year Population.
• NMTC_2015 - Proportion of population covered by the 2023 Census tract boundary that satisfies the definition of a low-income community for the purposes of Category 1 applications via the New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) map created using 2011-2015 ACS data. Facilities in NMTC_2015 regions meet the geographic eligibility criteria for Category 1 only if applications are submitted before August 31st, 2024.
• NMTC_2020 - Proportion of the population covered by the 2023 Census tract boundary that satisfies the definition of a low-income community for the purposes of Category 1 applications via the New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) map created using 2016-2020 ACS data.
• CEJST - Proportion of population covered that meets the Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool’s (CEJST) threshold for disadvantage in the ‘Energy’ category of Burden using data released by the CEJST Program in November 2022.
• PPC - Persistent Poverty County population as defined by the EDA.